Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Hint: 0% is as low as it goes!

Fed cuts rates as economy slumps, hoping to stop recession
By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer
30 Apr 2008
WASHINGTON - Scrambling to shore up the faltering economy, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to the lowest point in nearly four years Wednesday as the nation teetered on the edge of recession.
...
Chairman Ben Bernanke led a divided Fed, in an 8-2 vote, in slicing its key rate by one-quarter percentage point to 2 percent.


The folks on Wall Street were "flummoxed" (see below).
Note to investors: 0% is as low as it can go!

Stocks dip with investors flummoxed over Fed

A helpful hint to the rest of us:
These guys aren't any smarter than we are, they just have more money!
Have a nice day.

Dodging the bullet

Economy grows by only 0.6 percent in 1st quarter of 2008

Given general pessimism surrounding the economy, I actually found this headline needlessly negative. A more positive spin - perfectly justified given doom & gloom context - would be, "Economy surprises: Grows 0.6 percent in Q1"

No - 0.6% growth ain't great, but it's better than contraction, which seems to have been consensus forecast.

For what it's worth - about 1.5 years ago, as part of my job, I made a bold prediction: At least 80% chance of recession before 2010. This was based on analysis of biz cycle since WWII and some very braindead statistical models.

Have a nice day.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

just for fun (truly: pointless fun!)

Gilbert & Sullivan, The Gondoliers
SONG--GIUSEPPE with CHORUS.

Rising early in the morning,
We proceed to light the fire,
Then our Majesty adorning
In its workaday attire,
We embark without delay
On the duties of the day.

First, we polish off some batches
Of political despatches,
And foreign politicians circumvent;
Then, if business isn't heavy,
We may hold a Royal levee,
Or ratify some Acts of Parliament.
Then we probably review the household troops--
With the usual "Shalloo humps!" and "Shalloo hoops!"
Or receive with ceremonial and state
An interesting Eastern potentate.
After that we generally
Go and dress our private valet--
(It's a rather nervous duty--he's a touchy little man)--
Write some letters literary
For our private secretary--
He is shaky in his spelling, so we help him if we can.
Then, in view of cravings inner,
We go down and order dinner;
Then we polish the Regalia and the Coronation Plate--
Spend an hour in titivating
All our Gentlemen-in-Waiting;
Or we run on little errands for the Ministers of State.

Oh, philosophers may sing
Of the troubles of a King;
Yet the duties are delightful, and the privileges great;
But the privilege and pleasure
That we treasure beyond measure
Is to run on little errands for the Ministers of State.

CHORUS. Oh, philosophers may sing, etc.

After luncheon (making merry
On a bun and glass of sherry),
If we've nothing in particular to do,
We may make a Proclamation,
Or receive a deputation--
Then we possibly create a Peer or two.
Then we help a fellow-creature on his path
With the Garter or the Thistle or the Bath,
Or we dress and toddle off in semi-state
To a festival, a function, or a fete.
Then we go and stand as sentry
At the Palace (private entry),
Marching hither, marching thither, up and down and to and fro,
While the warrior on duty
Goes in search of beer and beauty
(And it generally happens that he hasn't far to go).
He relieves us, if he's able,
Just in time to lay the table,
Then we dine and serve the coffee, and at half-past twelve or one,
With a pleasure that's emphatic,
We retire to our attic
With the gratifying feeling that our duty has been done!

Oh, philosophers may sing
Of the troubles of a King,
But of pleasures there are many and of worries there are none;
And the culminating pleasure
That we treasure beyond measure
Is the gratifying feeling that our duty has been done!

CHORUS. Oh, philosophers may sing, etc.
You're welcome!

"so it goes"

... so it goes
Militiamen ambush drives back US patrol in Sadr City
By KIM GAMEL, Associated Press Writer

29 Apr 2008
BAGHDAD - Dozens of fighters ambushed a U.S. patrol in Baghdad's main Shiite militia stronghold Tuesday, firing rocket-propelled grenades and machine gun bursts as the American push into Sadr City increasingly faces pockets of close urban combat.
Why are we there?

Stop the madness!

Abandoning my declared neutrality

I'd honestly hoped to remain neutral in the Dem primary campaign, believing that either candidate would be preferable to McCain.

I now find myself wondering why Sen Clinton is sounding more and more like a perhaps warmer-and-fuzzier Sen McCain.

Her threat to "totally obliterate" Iran should it attack Israel with nuclear weapons was, to put it gently, uncalled for. Iran has no nuclear weapons. Why make the threat? Still, I was willing to overlook it.

Her recent support of McCain's "gas-tax holiday" proposal, however, pushed me over the edge.

Whatever Sen Obama's faults, he is at least not parroting his esteemed Republican opponent.

I'm an independent voter. I'll not vote for McCain. Should Sen Clinton win the nomination, I will have a very hard time pulling the lever for HER. We don't need warmer-and-fuzzier Republicans masquerading as Democrats - we need committed DEMOCRATS!

Talk with Cuba? You bet! With North Korea? You bet! With Iran? You bet! Talk is NOT cheap - but it cannot possibly be less effective than gratuitous belligerent threats.

Gas prices too high? How 'bout pursuing a sane alternative energy program?... as opposed to, say, encouraging increased demand?

If in the interest of "bipartisanship" Sen Clinton would like to co-opt some of Sen McCain's good ideas - okay. ... BUT (hint, hint): Sen McCain has no good ideas! His economic "policy" ("cut taxes" pretty much sums it up) continues W's "borrow-and-spend" path to the poor-house. His foreign "policy" (talk loudly, strut) continues W's unilateral, paranoid belligerence.

If we don't need another flight-suited strutting warrior in the Oval Office, we certainly don't need a pants-suited strutting would-be warrior there, either!

Again, it truly pains me to adopt this position. I'd hoped to be able to pull the lever for ANY major-party candidate whose name wasn't "McCain" come November. I find now that I will not be able to do so.

Sorry, Sen Clinton. I'm afraid you just lost my potential vote.

[Should you be the Dem Candidate, I do have constructive advice:
Run on W's record!
You never have to once mention any of your positions. Simply suggest to voters, "If you like where the country is today, vote for McCain!"]

Advice for Candidate McCain

To make plausible your desire to see the U.S. attain "victory" in Iraq, you need to make it known as soon as possible that you have the very best minds working on it, and that you will send them to Baghdad the day after your inauguration.

May I suggest the following team:
Donald Rumsfeld
Paul Wolfowitz
Douglas Feith
Richard Perle
These guys know they were right, if only other folks hadn't fouled things up so completely. Great!

Let 'em fix it!... (Oh - and it can't be fixed from D.C. - on the ground presence in Baghdad is required to oversee the day-to-day as well as the "strategic" aspects of this mission!)

Monday, April 28, 2008

Why do I continue to be dumbfounded...?

...by headlines like this:
US accuses Iran and Syria of trying to destabilize Iraq
Yes: if it weren't for the nefarious influence of Iran & Syria, Iraq would be a haven of peace and tranquility! A virtual Garden of Eden beckoning the world's peace-lovers to her shores!

Stop the madness!