I'm getting tired of being right all the time

Back on 8 Feb, I asked the question,

Uh, guys... you sure you want to do this?,

referring to news that,

U.S. and Iraqi soldiers raided the Shiite district of Sadr City on Thursday and arrested 16 people.

The post noted that al Sadr's Mahdi Army had declared and observed a ceasefire since August, contributing to the success of the "surge", and suggested that maybe - just maybe - deliberately provoking the Mahdi Army's ire was not such a great idea.

Well, guess what? Today's news regarding the Sunday shelling of the Green Zone notes that,

Green Zone shelling mirrors militia ire
By HAMZA HENDAWI and QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA, Associated Press Writers
24 March 2008
BAGHDAD - Rocket attacks on the U.S.-protected Green Zone may carry a message with implications across Iraq: rising anger within the Mahdi Army militia.
...
The latest rumblings in the Mahdi Army are provoked by the belief that the Americans and their Iraqi allies abused the cease-fire by conducting raids that have targeted hundreds of al-Sadr's backers and aides.

Militia commanders told The Associated Press they viewed the arrests as a move by Shiite rivals to deny them a prominent political voice. They also cited al-Sadr's statement this month that his cease-fire did not preclude his followers from self defense.

Good job, guys! Anger the folks who've helped you keep the lid on things!

Well... other than that, the Mahdi Army has been pretty quiet, really... right?

Iraq cleric's militia starts protest, shuts stores
By Ahmed Rasheed and Waleed Ibrahim, Reuters
Mon Mar 24, 2008
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraqi Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army militia ordered shops to close in some Baghdad neighborhoods on Monday in what they said was the start of a "civil disobedience campaign."

In related news, the always reliable Gen Petraeus knows who the real culprits are!

Iran 'behind Green Zone attack'
BBC News
24 March 2008
The most senior US general in Iraq has said he has evidence that Iran was behind Sunday's bombardment of Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone.

Gen David Petraeus told the BBC he thought Tehran had trained, equipped and funded insurgents who fired the barrage of mortars and rockets.

He said Iran was adding what he described as "lethal accelerants" to a very combustible mix.

Don't take your eye off the ball: IRAN!

Let's forget that al Sadr is fiercely nationalistic. That's beside the point.
It's Iran's fault!

Let's ignore that our policy has directly provoked the Mahdi Army.
It's Iran's fault!

[Note: Petraeus cites no evidence of Iranian involvement, simply asserting that the weapons used came from Iran. Who knows, maybe he's right. So what? I'm betting that there've been numerous cases in which U.S. troops have been attacked with U.S.-supplied weapons. That doesn't imply that the U.S. is "behind" these attacks - only that the bad guys are using whatever weapons they can get. From Iran? No problem! al Sadr & his Mahdi Army are generally considered unlikely allies of Iran - al Sadr has presented himself as being a fierce Iraqi nationalist. The Shiite militia most closely associated with Iran is generally taken to be the Badr Brigade.]

Stop the madness!