Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Will this work?

Fed cuts rates by 3/4 percentage point
Associated Press
18 March 2008
WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve on Tuesday slashed a key interest rate by three-fourths of a percentage point, moving aggressively to contain a credit crisis threatening to push the country into a severe recession.

Wow! None of your piddling 0.25% cuts for this Fed! 0.75%!
The stock market retreated after the news, apparently having hoped for a full 1% reduction!

Fed fund rate now stands at 2.25%.
Yes, it can go lower, but at what price? Inflation is threatening - the weak dollar keeps oil pricey. Refined products follow.
Owing to some reporting legerdemain first proposed in 1975, food & energy are excluded from "core" inflation numbers... but high energy prices will almost certainly flow through the supply chain, down to the consumer. $4/gal diesel makes transport expensive. Planes, trains, and automobiles run on petroleum products - any business that relies on these will see higher costs, presumably passed on to customers.

The Fed is betting heavily that it can get the economy moving quickly. Otherwise looming inflation will necessitate higher Fed funds rate before recovery begins... This is not fun to contemplate. As noted previously, American households at all income levels (up to the 95th percentile) have experienced 0 growth in real income during W's tenure. Inflation will drive this down to negative growth - for those still employed!

Forgetting about politics for the moment: I really hope the Fed's move works!

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