Dodging the bullet

Economy grows by only 0.6 percent in 1st quarter of 2008

Given general pessimism surrounding the economy, I actually found this headline needlessly negative. A more positive spin - perfectly justified given doom & gloom context - would be, "Economy surprises: Grows 0.6 percent in Q1"

No - 0.6% growth ain't great, but it's better than contraction, which seems to have been consensus forecast.

For what it's worth - about 1.5 years ago, as part of my job, I made a bold prediction: At least 80% chance of recession before 2010. This was based on analysis of biz cycle since WWII and some very braindead statistical models.

Have a nice day.