Almost forgot: wrong again!

I confessed that my prediciton of a Halloween surprise didn't quite pan out...
But a less precise version of the grand conspiracy theory would have been validated by an early-November surprise... which, too, did not pan out.

There's a third version of the grand conspiracy theory that covers the next ~2.5 months (see, e.g., comment to this post). If this one doesn't pan out, my grand conspiracy theory will be in tatters. (Right now it's got lots of loose threads and the seams are starting to split.)