Tuesday, February 5, 2008

I lied...

Flipping from MSNBC to CNN to CBS to ABC to NBC reveals no analysis worth the name... so I'm blogging.

Lots and lots and lots of exit-poll demographics, with not much context. Obama so far winning the African-American vote by sizable margin. Clinton winning Whites, by lesser margin... but the relevant context - like, what % of electorate is African-American, what % is White - is not provided. [If I win 100% of a 1% slice, but only 48% of a 99% slice, I'll lose.]

... and the numbers I really want to hear - relative Dem vs Rep turnout - I've not seen reported. This is what'll make the difference in November. [Note: it's not enough to compare raw numbers - 15 Dems vs 10 Reps... What I want to see is % turnout AND totals. If those 15 Dems represent only 20% of registered Dems, but the 10 Reps are ALL of 'em, that matters.]

Do the networks employ professional statisticians to help 'em formulate meaningful analyses? Based on the talking-heads I've seen, the answer is, "No." Anecdotal "data" seems concrete, but it's really no substitute for solid quantitative analysis. [For some interesting commentary on the cognitive appeal of concrete, specific, but non-numeric & potentially horribly misleading anecdotal "analysis", see Richards J. Heuer, Jr. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (.pdf format... also available in .html.]

What passes for "analysis" from NBC:
Q: Is Obama a Campaign, or, as some would have it, a Movement?
A: Obama is a Persona...
There's a not-too-delicate nominal phrase describing this type of "analysis":
Mental Masturbation
(... and these people are paid good money for their commentary!)

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